BRN has questioned NCPO sincerity and emphatically rejected talks without foreign observers, a stipulation that stokes the regime's fears of internationalisation. Professed members of the main insurgent group, the Barisan Revolusi Nasional Melayu Patani (Patani-Malay National Revolutionary Front, BRN), hold leading positions in MARA Patani, but do not have the sanction of the group's leadership. While proponents of the dialogue argue that other factions will join once the process gains momentum, many observers doubt MARA Patani currently can speak for a critical mass of fighters. Serious talks are also hindered by the militants' disunity and parochialism. With local civil society increasingly stifled, prospects for bringing popular pressure to bear for genuine dialogue are slim. Its argument that rebels should give up violence and work for peaceful change rings hollow, since it allows no political activity. It has suppressed political engagement countrywide, suspending elections and curtailing civil liberties, while seeking to establish a foundation for long-term control after the general election promised for late 2017. The NCPO's preferred approach has more to do with convincing militants to surrender than achieving a settlement with leaders in exile. Despite a further meeting on 2 September, dialogue remains at a preliminary, unofficial stage. At a 27 April meeting in Kuala Lumpur, the Thai team declined to sign, saying it needed to review the document, and questioned MARA Patani's standing to engage in official talks. But the next month, the army abruptly transferred the secretary for the Thai dialogue team, who had led efforts on the ToR. In March 2016, after two plenaries and three rounds of technical talks, the NCPO's dialogue team and the MARA Patani ā the Majlis Syura Patani (Patani Consultative Council) umbrella body established in 2015 to negotiate with Bangkok ā reached preliminary agreement on an eight-point Terms of Reference (ToR) that would open the way for official talks. However, the NCPO appears caught between the imperative of talking to show locals and the international community that it does the right thing and an abiding fear that dialogue will legitimise the separatists and pave the way for international intervention and eventual partition. Though the army opposed the dialogue process when it began under Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra's government in 2013, the NCPO pledged to restart talks and invited Malaysia to resume facilitation. Since seizing power, the NCPO has been preoccupied with running a politically divided country slipping toward the uncertainties of the approaching end of King Bhumibol Adulyadej's seven-decade reign. The August bombings in the upper south should encourage the government to seek talks for a comprehensive settlement. A decentralised political system could help resolve the conflict by giving respect to Malay-Muslim identity and aspirations while preserving the unitary state, but a pernicious stalemate prevails, with both state and militants preferring hostilities to compromise. The main insurgent group has rejected the process, and the number of fighters the umbrella entity set up to negotiate in 2015 controls is unknown. The National Council for Peace and Order (NCPO), which seized power in the 2014 coup, professes to support dialogue to end the insurgency but avoids commitment, and the prime minister has questioned the talks. Coordinated bombings in August on tourist areas outside the customary conflict zone in the deep south bear the hallmarks of the separatists and indicate that the government's approach of containing the insurgency is not working. The peace dialogue between Thailand's military government and some Malay-Muslim separatist leaders in exile has foundered. Any views expressed are solely those of the author or publisher and do not necessarily reflect those of UNHCR, the United Nations or its Member States. UNHCR is not responsible for, nor does it necessarily endorse, its content. International Crisis Group (ICG), Southern Thailand's Peace Dialogue: No Traction, 21 September 2016, Breifing Nā48, available at:
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